Thank you for the 2010s and looking forward to the 2020s.

Happy New Year!!!  As we look forward to the new decade,  we should reflect on the past decade.  

Content-driven services
A lot happened in the 2010s,  Netflix, Amazon Prime, ESPN 3 made streaming content "cool."  I went this route because my DVDs were getting scratched, and I was not happy with my cable service.  Overall I saved money, and I was pleased with its flexibility. I could watch content on my handheld devices.  

Prediction for the 2020s:  

• I envision these types of streams will continue to grow, and the cable TV will eventually disappear.  Folks will pay for recorded and live content rather than specific tv channels.  I would rather directly pay the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL rather than go through ESPN and FOX sports.  
• I envision broker companies that will focus on aligning users, content providers, and marketing companies.  The broker companies will develop user profiles based on patterns.  They will use  AI and machine learning to build and improve user profiles.  These profiles will then leveraged to provided target adds.  Amazon is already taking steps to go this route via Amazon Channels[1].  

Technical Debt

Currently, Chief Information Officers (CIO) are struggling with aging infrastructure and the lack of funds to upgrade the infrastructure, which includes network infrastructure, databases, applications, and other IT-related components.  Hackernoon.com does a great job of defining Technical Debt[2], and Technical Debt is one of the significant causes of cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

Prediction for the 2020s:  

• Companies will be forced to address this problem in the 2020s because of security vulnerabilities that be in exposed in the old infrastructure.
• I envision start-up companies that will specialize in upgrading infrastructure, which includes moving digital assets (e.g., applications, data, and others) to the cloud. These companies will bring processes like DevSecOps[3] and the associated tools to the project.
• These companies will need to provide a holistic approach in assessing the issues, developing a strategy, and executing the plan. 

Leverage platform services

In the 2010s,  companies recognized that they need more enterprise IT services. Email isn't the only enterprise service. Services like Identity and Access Management (IAM) services, enterprise search,  document management, and others need to be considered as well. Companies bought the infrastructure and hired the staff to develop the service and maintain it.  Unfortunately, a document management SME doesn't have the bandwidth to understand the rapidly evolving cybersecurity attacks.  This leaves the businesses behind the eight-ball when it comes to sustaining an enterprise service and be vigilant of cyber threats.

Prediction for the 2020s:  

• Large vendors like Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and others will offer cloud-based enterprise services.  These services will have simple and clean interfaces.  By having a clean and straightforward interface,  the potential targets for a cyber attack are reduced. The current set of examples of cloud-based enterprise services are the Google Identity Platform [4], Tableau Online [5], and others. 
• I envision IT groups focus on training their staff on how to integrate their business applications with their enterprise services.  

CXO roles

Currently, the Chief Information Officer (CIO) is the chief IT officer in any business organization.  Typically the Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) and the Chief Data Officer (CDO) report to the CIO.  I envision these roles will change in the future.

Prediction for the 2020s:

• Due to the continuous threat of cyber attacks, the role of the CISO will be elevated in the business organization.  The CISO will be equivalent to the CIO.  
• The job of the CDO will continue to be a tough one[6].  The CDO role will not be funded well and may not have a lot of authority.  The CDO will need to please two masters, the CDO and CISO.
• The CDO role will follow a similar pattern to the Gartner Hype Cycle [7], where the hype will go down because the CDO role is not an operations role.  The CDO will be on the same level as the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) or lower.
• The Cloud Architect will be elevated to the C-Suite due to the complexity of the cloud and the cybersecurity threats. On December 30th, 2019, The Wallstreet Journal published an article, Ghosts in the Clouds: Inside China’s Major Corporate Hack[8], which discusses how the Chinese hackers went in through the cloud providers.

NOTE: Image for this blog post is located at https://pixabay.com/illustrations/new-year-s-day-2020-new-year-s-eve-4722431/.

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[1] Casey, H., and Reisinger, C. (2019, May 13). What Is Amazon Channels and Is it Worth It? Tom's Guide. Retrieved from https://www.tomsguide.com/us/amazon-channels-faq,review-4125.html.
[2] Hackernoon.com. (2018, Jan. 25). There are 3 main types of technical debt. Here’s how to manage them. Retrieved from https://hackernoon.com/there-are-3-main-types-of-technical-debt-heres-how-to-manage-them-4a3328a4c50c.
[3] RedHat, Inc., (n.d.). What is DevSecOps?  Retrieved from https://www.redhat.com/en/topics/devops/what-is-devsecops.
[4] Google, LLC (n.d.). Google Identity Platform. Retrieved from https://developers.google.com/identity
[5] Tableau, LLC (n.d.). Tableau Online. Retrieved from https://www.tableau.com/products/cloud-bi.
[6] Bennett, Jo. (2016, Apr. 11). How chief data officers can tackle formidable roadblocks, including people, culture, and internal resistance. Smarter With Gartner. Gartner, Inc.  Retrieved from https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/half-of-cdos-succeed/.
[7] Gartner, Inc. (n.d.). Gartner Hype Cycle.  Retrieved from https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle.
[8] The Wallstreet Journal (2019, Dec. 30). Ghosts in the Clouds: Inside China’s Major Corporate Hack. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/ghosts-in-the-clouds-inside-chinas-major-corporate-hack-11577729061.

FB = failureBook.com

I give up! I am planning to get out of Facebook.com.  Yesterday I spent some time trying to limit profiles for certain individuals.  It's extremely hard.  Frankly it is retarded!  This is the first time in couple of years that I tried to configure my account.  Facebook does a horrible job of putting functionality  in their product and they don't remove the functionality when it becomes obsolete.  Where is the part that I can sign up to be in my employer's social network? It's not there.  What happened to limiting profiles.  Now you have to create lists which are highly complicated. They just paid Instragr.am to be part of this dysfunctional family.  Facebook reminds of Microsoft's second cousin who lives in trailer in the backwoods of Ozarks.

Maybe I am harsh but I am definitely frustrated.  I am done! >-|

Let Me Charge You Per User.

Yesterday I saw the following tweet from LinkedIn:
“RT @benparr: Linkedin Surpasses 100 Million Users [INFOGRAPHIC] – http://on.mash.to/eIVmAw”

This led to me thinking on how the business model in Information Technology (IT) has shifted to defining business value from the perspective of a user. Let me explain.

Back in the day, vendors made money by charging customers on the number of CPU’s or the number of transactions their software supported without degrading the quality of the software service. There were several companies including Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, SAS and others which followed this model.

When did the transformation begin? I believe it began when Google came along and started buying companies like DoubleClick and other online advertising companies. This opened up the world to a regular Joe or in this case a regular Enoch to generate revenue via online pay-per-click ads (PPC). At that time Google, Yahoo and other businesses recognized that individuals like you and me have a specific business value and the individual can increase his business value by how pro-active they are in using these online technologies. Then came Facebook with Microsoft’s help (Mr. Zuckerberg, you are one lucky dude!) started to leverage the business value from its users. Facebook and others recognized that money could be made via targeted ads and analyzing user behavior. They inturn showed their business partners that there is a better return on investment (ROI) on the marketing dollars by using logical platforms created by companies like Facebook and Twitter.

Recently I heard on NPR (this may be out of style after congress is done slashing funding for this service) that investment companies are investing in companies like Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Twitter, etc., etc because they are generating money and everyone is excited about. These companies see their users as assets of a company. Switching gears a bit, Google is offering their cloud services to different companies and they are charging businesses a flat fee for the service which is based fee per user per year rather than fee per CPU or transaction. This model is cleaner since it identifies per business associate and it doesn’t require a techie geek like me to figure it out. Therefore “Go Fish”…I mean go figure, the business world always understood that its users are its life blood and now IT is aligning itself to it.

Bad Mix: Traditional businesses and Social media

I recently did a road map of social media initiatives within the department and agency I work for. I tracked all of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) policies from the 1970 (Hello President Carter!) to the present time and them mapped them to specific Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) policies and initiatives. I also captured when various Social media businesses like Facebook, Twitter, MySpace, and Blogger were formed or purchased by Google. It was a fascinating exercise.

The evolution of businesses, which are based on the concepts of social networking, and organic growth, has truly been disruptive in the business world. The tools provided by these companies are making the Jasmine flower proud (my poor attempt in weaving the political revolutions in the middle east into this blog entry). Unfortunately I don't think social media tools are going to successful in the big business world because businesses are based on the principles of organized management. There is a reason why fortune 500 companies hire executives with a Masters of Business ADMINISTRATION and not Masters of Science in Business. Structure and management go together.

If you think about it. Labor unions and other user related groups with a common goal (that are not dependent on a process) will adopt social media successfully within their organization. Meanwhile investment banks and large supply chain companies will have limited success because they are based on processes. IT is critical in a business they automate business process and automation of business processes can be managed. Social media shouldn't be managed but it should be organic. A successful CIO may be able to successful implement social media in niche pockets but he or she cannot make it an enterprise level shared services. Folks in the Department of Defense claim that social media is successful in their organization. When you do intelligence analysis which is based on information sharing from different perspectives then there has be collaboration. Social media in the intelligence domain is successful because it is based on information collaboration. This is uniquely different from a typical fortune 500 company.

Anyway I had this thought this morning and now I need to go to work and the agency's social media initiatives.

SOA will die!

I think Services Oriented Architecture (SOA) will die with the whole notion of Cloud computing. If you were to follow to the history of Google APIs (Application Programming Interface), you will notice that Google had quite a few XML based Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) web services in the 2003 - 2004 time frame. If you were to surf the Google Code base, you will notice that there aren't alot of web services enabled APIs. What does this mean?

I think with phenomenon like Cloud computing, there will be a decrease in system to system level integration. How many of us can say that Enterprise Java Beans (EJBs) will make a come back? Maybe one or two handfuls around. The reality is that IT is evolving so fast that complexity of the accessible API is more simplified. Who would ever have thought that JavaScript is the favored scripting language to access APIs? It does make sense though. JavaScript is here to stay as long as the web browser (workstation or mobile). In this ever changing evolving IT world, services will be designed and developed using JavaScript. I am waiting for a JavaScript specifically for system integration. I like the JavaScript libraries that were built for Facebook and Google. Goodbye SOA and welcome to JSOA aka JavaScript Oriented Architecture in the cloud. I believe cloud will also cause the fall of the relational database management system (RDBMS) and rise to the Reduced HashMap. I will expound on this evolution in the data tier in the near future.

The image is taken from David Chou's blog entry, "Cloud Computing and the Microsoft Platform" at http://ht.ly/3ACCE